PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Chuba Hubbard or Kyren Williams: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chuba Hubbard: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Kyren Williams: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chuba Hubbard edges Kyren Williams, outscoring him in 50.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Chuba Hubbard (50%). Standard: Kyren Williams (50%). Need a safe floor? Chuba Hubbard (p10 5.1). Need upside? Kyren Williams (p85 23.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chuba Hubbard | 50% | RB12 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 24.7 |
| Kyren Williams | 50% | RB13 | 13.9 | 5.8 | 24.9 | |
| Half-PPR | Chuba Hubbard | 50% | RB12 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 23.2 |
| Kyren Williams | 50% | RB13 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 23.5 | |
| Standard | Chuba Hubbard | 50% | RB11 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 21.8 |
| Kyren Williams | 50% | RB12 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 22.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.