PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Dalton Kincaid or Sam LaPorta: who should I start in Week 4?
· Dalton Kincaid: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Sam LaPorta: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Sam LaPorta edges Dalton Kincaid, outscoring him in 50.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Sam LaPorta (51%). Standard: Dalton Kincaid (52%). Need a safe floor? Sam LaPorta (p10 2.2). Need upside? Dalton Kincaid (p85 16.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Dalton Kincaid | 49% | TE8 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 19.9 |
| Sam LaPorta | 51% | TE6 | 9.8 | 3.1 | 19.9 | |
| Half-PPR | Dalton Kincaid | 50% | TE6 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 16.9 |
| Sam LaPorta | 50% | TE7 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 16.5 | |
| Standard | Dalton Kincaid | 52% | TE5 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 14.1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 48% | TE7 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 13.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
Open in the Start/Sit assistant (add a 3rd or 4th player) →
Get PropSims free
PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.