PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Derrick Henry or Jaylen Warren: who should I start in Week 4?
· Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Derrick Henry edges Jaylen Warren, outscoring him in 50.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Jaylen Warren (53%). Standard: Derrick Henry (55%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 7.1). Need upside? Derrick Henry (p85 27.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Derrick Henry | 47% | RB8 | 15.8 | 7.1 | 27.6 |
| Jaylen Warren | 53% | RB5 | 16.7 | 8.0 | 27.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Derrick Henry | 51% | RB6 | 15.3 | 6.9 | 27.2 |
| Jaylen Warren | 49% | RB7 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 25.1 | |
| Standard | Derrick Henry | 55% | RB5 | 14.8 | 6.5 | 26.7 |
| Jaylen Warren | 45% | RB8 | 13.6 | 6.1 | 23.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.