PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Jalen Hurts or Dak Prescott: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jalen Hurts: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Dak Prescott: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jalen Hurts edges Dak Prescott, outscoring him in 50.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Jalen Hurts (p10 9.0). Need upside? Dak Prescott (p85 24.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jalen Hurts | 51% | QB15 | 16.2 | 9.0 | 24.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 49% | QB16 | 16.2 | 8.6 | 24.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Jalen Hurts | 51% | QB15 | 16.2 | 9.0 | 24.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 49% | QB16 | 16.2 | 8.6 | 24.7 | |
| Standard | Jalen Hurts | 51% | QB15 | 16.2 | 9.0 | 24.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 49% | QB16 | 16.2 | 8.6 | 24.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.