PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Juwan Johnson or Tyler Warren: who should I start in Week 4?
· Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Tyler Warren: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET
Start Juwan Johnson over Tyler Warren in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 55% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Juwan Johnson (p10 2.2). Need upside? Juwan Johnson (p85 18.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Juwan Johnson | 55% | TE4 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 22.1 |
| Tyler Warren | 45% | TE5 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 18.9 | |
| Half-PPR | Juwan Johnson | 55% | TE3 | 8.5 | 2.2 | 18.6 |
| Tyler Warren | 45% | TE6 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 15.7 | |
| Standard | Juwan Johnson | 56% | TE3 | 6.0 | 1.3 | 15.2 |
| Tyler Warren | 44% | TE8 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 12.5 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.