PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Michael Wilson or Dontayvion Wicks: who should I start in Week 4?
· Michael Wilson: ARI vs NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Dontayvion Wicks: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Dontayvion Wicks edges Michael Wilson, outscoring him in 50.0% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Michael Wilson (52%). Standard: Dontayvion Wicks (52%). Need a safe floor? Michael Wilson (p10 2.8). Need upside? Dontayvion Wicks (p85 18.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Michael Wilson | 52% | WR18 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 21.3 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 48% | WR21 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 21.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Michael Wilson | 50% | WR19 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 17.8 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 50% | WR20 | 8.9 | 2.3 | 18.8 | |
| Standard | Michael Wilson | 48% | WR21 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 14.4 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 52% | WR17 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 16.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.