PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Mike Evans or Malik Nabers: who should I start in Week 4?
· Mike Evans: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Malik Nabers: NYG vs ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Mike Evans edges Malik Nabers, outscoring him in 50.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Mike Evans (52%). Standard: Malik Nabers (51%). Need a safe floor? Mike Evans (p10 3.0). Need upside? Malik Nabers (p85 19.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Mike Evans | 52% | WR23 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 20.8 |
| Malik Nabers | 48% | WR26 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 22.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Mike Evans | 51% | WR24 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 17.2 |
| Malik Nabers | 49% | WR25 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 19.7 | |
| Standard | Mike Evans | 49% | WR27 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 13.9 |
| Malik Nabers | 51% | WR20 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 17.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.