PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Tetairoa McMillan or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Tetairoa McMillan: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · Nico Collins: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Tetairoa McMillan edges Nico Collins, outscoring him in 51.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Tetairoa McMillan (p10 2.9). Need upside? Tetairoa McMillan (p85 20.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 51% | WR18 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 23.4 |
| Nico Collins | 49% | WR21 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 23.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Tetairoa McMillan | 51% | WR17 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 20.1 |
| Nico Collins | 49% | WR20 | 9.6 | 2.6 | 19.8 | |
| Standard | Tetairoa McMillan | 52% | WR16 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 17.1 |
| Nico Collins | 48% | WR18 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 16.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.