Who should I start? Week 4

Pick 2-4 players. We compare them in the same 10,000 simulated games: who outscores whom, the median, the floor (p10) and the ceiling (p85). The recommendation changes with your goal.

ⓘ Beta, model output only. QB/RB/WR/TE in all 16 games of Week 4. Limits

Week 4's closest start/sit calls

• Omarion Hampton or J.K. Dobbins? Omarion Hampton wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Zay Flowers or Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Zay Flowers wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Daniel Jones or Drake Maye? Daniel Jones wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Alvin Kamara or Omarion Hampton? Alvin Kamara wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Brock Bowers or Tyler Warren? Brock Bowers wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Derrick Henry or Kenneth Walker III? Derrick Henry wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Brock Bowers or Travis Kelce? Brock Bowers wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye? Jacoby Brissett wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Travis Kelce or Tyler Warren? Travis Kelce wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Trevor Lawrence or C.J. Stroud? Trevor Lawrence wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Tetairoa McMillan or CeeDee Lamb? Tetairoa McMillan wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Juwan Johnson or Mark Andrews? Juwan Johnson wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)

All Week 4 close calls · Every player's start/sit page

How to read it

• Head-to-head %: the share of 10,000 simulated games in which a player scores more than the other (ties count half). Players are simulated together, game by game, so teammates and opponents move together the way they do on Sundays.
• Floor (p10): 9 in 10 sims land above it. Ceiling (p85): about 1 in 7 sims land above it. Favored this week? Take the floor. Underdog? Chase the ceiling.
• Why lines come from data only: the market-implied team total (median across books via The Odds API), this season's target/carry share and snap rate (nflverse play-by-play), the injury-report status, and any teammate we treat as out.

Coming later: ask on X. Post @PropSims start: Player A or Player B ppr and get these numbers back.