Who should I start? Week 4

Pick 2-4 players. We compare them in the same 10,000 simulated games: who outscores whom, the median, the floor (p10) and the ceiling (p85). The recommendation changes with your goal.

ⓘ Beta, model output only. QB/RB/WR/TE in all 16 games of Week 4. Limits

Week 4's closest start/sit calls

• Patrick Mahomes or Brock Purdy? Patrick Mahomes wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Joe Burrow or Jared Goff? Joe Burrow wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Alvin Kamara or J.K. Dobbins? Alvin Kamara wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Jeremiyah Love or Bhayshul Tuten? Jeremiyah Love wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Bo Nix or Trevor Lawrence? Bo Nix wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• David Montgomery or Jacory Croskey-Merritt? David Montgomery wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Bo Nix or C.J. Stroud? Bo Nix wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Parker Washington or Stefon Diggs? Parker Washington wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Tucker Kraft or Mark Andrews? Tucker Kraft wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Jaylen Warren or James Cook III? Jaylen Warren wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Kenyon Sadiq or Dalton Schultz? Kenyon Sadiq wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• C.J. Stroud or Trevor Lawrence? C.J. Stroud wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)

All Week 4 close calls · Every player's start/sit page

How to read it

• Head-to-head %: the share of 10,000 simulated games in which a player scores more than the other (ties count half). Players are simulated together, game by game, so teammates and opponents move together the way they do on Sundays.
• Floor (p10): 9 in 10 sims land above it. Ceiling (p85): about 1 in 7 sims land above it. Favored this week? Take the floor. Underdog? Chase the ceiling.
• Why lines come from data only: the market-implied team total (median across books via The Odds API), this season's target/carry share and snap rate (nflverse play-by-play), the injury-report status, and any teammate we treat as out.

Coming later: ask on X. Post @PropSims start: Player A or Player B ppr and get these numbers back.