PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Chris Olave or Nico Collins: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chris Olave: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Nico Collins: HOU vs DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chris Olave edges Nico Collins, outscoring him in 52.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Chris Olave (p10 3.9). Need upside? Chris Olave (p85 22.5).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chris Olave | 53% | WR10 | 14.2 | 5.4 | 26.4 |
| Nico Collins | 47% | WR11 | 13.2 | 4.5 | 25.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Chris Olave | 52% | WR10 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 22.5 |
| Nico Collins | 48% | WR11 | 10.7 | 3.4 | 21.7 | |
| Standard | Chris Olave | 51% | WR10 | 8.5 | 2.4 | 18.5 |
| Nico Collins | 49% | WR11 | 8.4 | 2.1 | 18.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.