PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Jonathan Taylor or Christian McCaffrey: who should I start in Week 4?
· Jonathan Taylor: IND vs WAS, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 AM ET · Christian McCaffrey: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Jonathan Taylor edges Christian McCaffrey, outscoring him in 54.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Jonathan Taylor (p10 6.6). Need upside? Jonathan Taylor (p85 26.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Jonathan Taylor | 52% | RB7 | 16.3 | 7.4 | 27.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 48% | RB9 | 15.7 | 5.9 | 27.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Jonathan Taylor | 54% | RB8 | 15.0 | 6.6 | 26.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 46% | RB9 | 14.0 | 4.8 | 25.6 | |
| Standard | Jonathan Taylor | 56% | RB7 | 13.7 | 5.8 | 24.7 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 44% | RB9 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 23.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.