PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Juwan Johnson or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Juwan Johnson edges T.J. Hockenson, outscoring him in 51.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: T.J. Hockenson (50%). Standard: Juwan Johnson (53%). Need a safe floor? T.J. Hockenson (p10 1.7). Need upside? Juwan Johnson (p85 15.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Juwan Johnson | 50% | TE10 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 18.0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 50% | TE9 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 17.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Juwan Johnson | 51% | TE9 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 15.1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 49% | TE10 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 14.3 | |
| Standard | Juwan Johnson | 53% | TE8 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 12.2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 47% | TE11 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 11.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.