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Houston Texans Week 4 projections and player props

DAL at HOU · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · game page · opponent: Dallas Cowboys · Updated Oct 4, 2026, 12:01 PM ET

The market implies 25.8 points for the Houston Texans and 22.8 for Dallas Cowboys (median of 11 books). Our model projects C.J. Stroud (HOU vs DAL) for a median 240 passing yards (FanDuel line 244.5; 10th-90th percentile 156-327) and 12 rushing yards (FanDuel line 11.5; 10th-90th percentile 0-37) in Week 4. Our model projects Nico Collins (HOU vs DAL) for a median 59 receiving yards (FanDuel line 72.5; 10th-90th percentile 19-136) and 5 receptions (FanDuel line 5.5; 10th-90th percentile 2-8) in Week 4.

Rank	Player	Opp	Half-PPR median	Floor p10	Ceiling p85	PPR median	Std median	Key stats (median)
QB5	C.J. Stroud	DAL	17.2	9.7	26.4	17.2	17.2	240 passing yards, 12 rushing yards
WR12	Nico Collins	DAL	10.7	3.3	21.4	13.2	8.4	59 receiving yards, 5 receptions
RB29	David Montgomery	DAL	6.9	1.5	15.6	7.7	6.1	29 rushing yards, 6 receiving yards
TE10	Dalton Schultz	DAL	6.4	1.7	14.2	8.6	4.2	35 receiving yards, 4 receptions
RB38	Woody Marks	DAL	4.6	0.5	12.5	5.5	3.8	17 rushing yards, 5 receiving yards
RB40	Jawhar Jordan	DAL	4.5	1.0	10.9	5.3	3.8	22 rushing yards, 5 receiving yards
WR60	Xavier Hutchinson	DAL	4.0	0.7	9.4	5.2	2.8	21 receiving yards, 2 receptions
WR80	Kayshon Boutte (limited)	DAL	2.3	0.0	7.4	3.0	1.6
TE43	Foster Moreau (limited)	DAL	1.8	0.0	4.2	2.3	1.2
WR93	Jaylin Noel (limited)	DAL	1.6	0.0	5.2	2.1	1.1
WR101	Jared Wayne (limited)	DAL	1.0	0.0	4.2	1.4	0.5
WR144	Lewis Bond (limited)	DAL	0.0	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.0
TE73	Cade Stover (limited)	DAL	0.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
WR130	Dominique Robinson (limited)	DAL	0.0	0.0	2.1	0.0	0.0

Players sorted by half-PPR median. Floor = 10th percentile, ceiling = 85th percentile of 10,000 simulations of the game. Click a player for stat projections and every prop line we price.

Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. All teams · Week 4 rankings · Props board