PropWeek 4 games › NE at BUF
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Week 4 projections and props
Kickoff Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET ·
The market implies 21.5 points for NE and 28.5 for BUF. Our model projects Drake Maye (NE vs BUF) for a median 227 passing yards (FanDuel line 231.5; 10th-90th percentile 137-331) and 21 rushing yards (FanDuel line 27.5; 10th-90th percentile 1-58) in Week 4. Our model projects Josh Allen (BUF vs NE) for a median 233 passing yards (FanDuel line 242.5; 10th-90th percentile 151-317.1) and 35 rushing yards (FanDuel line 31.5; 10th-90th percentile 9-69) in Week 4.
New England Patriots
| Rank | Player | Opp | Half-PPR median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 | PPR median | Std median | Key stats (median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB18 | Drake Maye | BUF | 15.7 | 7.9 | 24.6 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 227 passing yards, 21 rushing yards |
| RB28 | Rhamondre Stevenson | BUF | 7.5 | 2.5 | 15.1 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 28 rushing yards, 14 receiving yards |
| RB30 | TreVeyon Henderson | BUF | 6.9 | 2.1 | 14.7 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 41 rushing yards, 3 receiving yards |
| TE11 | Hunter Henry | BUF | 6.0 | 1.4 | 14.0 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 32 receiving yards, 3 receptions |
| WR44 | Mack Hollins | BUF | 5.6 | 1.2 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 30 receiving yards, 3 receptions |
| WR50 | Romeo Doubs | BUF | 5.2 | 1.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 31 receiving yards, 2 receptions |
| WR63 | DeMario Douglas | BUF | 3.6 | 0.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 19 receiving yards, 2 receptions |
| WR102 | Kyle Williams (limited) | BUF | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | |
| RB73 | Lan Larison (limited) | BUF | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | |
| RB76 | Corey Kiner (limited) | BUF | 0.8 | -0.2 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | |
| TE59 | Eli RaridonQ (limited) | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| WR136 | Efton Chism III (limited) | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| WR117 | Marcus Jones (limited) | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| TE75 | Tanner Conner (limited) | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Buffalo Bills
| Rank | Player | Opp | Half-PPR median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 | PPR median | Std median | Key stats (median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Josh Allen | NE | 22.6 | 13.0 | 33.5 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 233 passing yards, 35 rushing yards |
| RB9 | James Cook III | NE | 14.9 | 6.9 | 26.0 | 15.7 | 14.1 | 89 rushing yards, 6 receiving yards |
| WR27 | DJ Moore | NE | 7.3 | 1.6 | 16.4 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 37 receiving yards, 3 receptions |
| TE7 | Dalton Kincaid | NE | 7.3 | 1.6 | 16.3 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 44 receiving yards, 3 receptions |
| WR37 | Khalil Shakir | NE | 6.1 | 1.3 | 14.4 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 28 receiving yards, 3 receptions |
| WR64 | Keon Coleman | NE | 3.5 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 18 receiving yards, 2 receptions |
| TE39 | Dawson Knox (limited) | NE | 2.6 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | |
| RB52 | Ty Johnson | NE | 2.5 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | |
| RB101 | Brock Lampe (limited) | NE | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | |
| RB118 | Ray DavisQ (limited) | NE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| TE74 | Jackson Hawes (limited) | NE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Both teams come from the same 10,000 simulations of this game, so player outcomes are correlated the way the game script makes them. Click a player for stat projections and prop lines.
Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. All Week 4 games · Rankings · Props board