Who should I start? Week 4

Pick 2-4 players. We compare them in the same 10,000 simulated games: who outscores whom, the median, the floor (p10) and the ceiling (p85). The recommendation changes with your goal.

ⓘ Beta, model output only. QB/RB/WR/TE in all 16 games of Week 4. Limits

Week 4's closest start/sit calls

• Michael Wilson or Dontayvion Wicks? Michael Wilson wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Dalton Kincaid or Sam LaPorta? Dalton Kincaid wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Jordan Addison or Jaylen Waddle? Jordan Addison wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Stefon Diggs or DK Metcalf? Stefon Diggs wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Travis Kelce or Brock Bowers? Travis Kelce wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Chuba Hubbard or Kyren Williams? Chuba Hubbard wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Deshaun Watson or C.J. Stroud? Deshaun Watson wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Patrick Mahomes or Jacoby Brissett? Patrick Mahomes wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Tetairoa McMillan or Drake London? Tetairoa McMillan wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Braelon Allen or David Montgomery? Braelon Allen wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• Brock Purdy or Patrick Mahomes? Brock Purdy wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)
• CeeDee Lamb or Drake London? CeeDee Lamb wins 50% of sims (half-PPR)

All Week 4 close calls · Every player's start/sit page

How to read it

• Head-to-head %: the share of 10,000 simulated games in which a player scores more than the other (ties count half). Players are simulated together, game by game, so teammates and opponents move together the way they do on Sundays.
• Floor (p10): 9 in 10 sims land above it. Ceiling (p85): about 1 in 7 sims land above it. Favored this week? Take the floor. Underdog? Chase the ceiling.
• Why lines come from data only: the market-implied team total (median across books via The Odds API), this season's target/carry share and snap rate (nflverse play-by-play), the injury-report status, and any teammate we treat as out.

Coming later: ask on X. Post @PropSims start: Player A or Player B ppr and get these numbers back.