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Week 4 QB rankings
Our Week 4 QB top five (half-PPR rank): 1. Josh Allen (BUF vs NE, 22.6), 2. Lamar Jackson (BAL vs TEN, 19.5), 3. Tyler Shough (NO vs ATL, 19.0), 4. Bo Nix (DEN vs SF, 17.6), 5. C.J. Stroud (HOU vs DAL, 17.2). Every player below comes from 10,000 simulations of his game; floor is the 10th percentile, ceiling the 85th.
| Rank | Player | Team | Opp | Half-PPR median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 | PPR median | Std median | Key stats (median) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB1 | Josh Allen | BUF | NE | 22.6 | 13.0 | 33.5 | 22.6 | 22.6 | 233 passing yards, 35 rushing yards |
| QB2 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | TEN | 19.5 | 11.0 | 29.0 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 245 passing yards, 28 rushing yards |
| QB3 | Tyler Shough | NO | ATL | 19.0 | 10.3 | 29.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 239 passing yards, 17 rushing yards |
| QB4 | Bo Nix | DEN | SF | 17.6 | 9.2 | 26.8 | 17.6 | 17.6 | 235 passing yards, 14 rushing yards |
| QB5 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | DAL | 17.2 | 9.7 | 26.4 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 240 passing yards, 12 rushing yards |
| QB6 | Trevor Lawrence | JAC | CIN | 17.2 | 9.3 | 26.4 | 17.2 | 17.2 | 239 passing yards, 15 rushing yards |
| QB7 | Patrick Mahomes | KC | LV | 16.9 | 8.8 | 26.4 | 16.9 | 16.9 | 237 passing yards, 16 rushing yards |
| QB8 | Brock Purdy | SF | DEN | 16.8 | 8.9 | 26.7 | 16.8 | 16.8 | 240 passing yards, 16 rushing yards |
| QB9 | Joe Burrow | CIN | JAC | 16.7 | 8.6 | 26.5 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 228 passing yards, 6 rushing yards |
| QB10 | Jared Goff | DET | CAR | 16.6 | 8.4 | 26.4 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 230 passing yards, 2 rushing yards |
| QB11 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | NYG | 16.5 | 8.6 | 25.9 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 236 passing yards, 8 rushing yards |
| QB12 | Bryce Young | CAR | DET | 16.5 | 8.8 | 25.3 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 242 passing yards, 8 rushing yards |
| QB13 | Daniel Jones | IND | WAS | 16.4 | 8.6 | 26.2 | 16.4 | 16.4 | 235 passing yards, 8 rushing yards |
| QB14 | Dak Prescott | DAL | HOU | 16.3 | 8.8 | 24.9 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 236 passing yards, 12 rushing yards |
| QB15 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | PIT | 16.1 | 9.2 | 24.4 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 206 passing yards, 28 rushing yards |
| QB16 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | LAR | 15.9 | 8.9 | 24.1 | 15.9 | 15.9 | 240 passing yards, 18 rushing yards |
| QB17 | Marcus Mariota | WAS | IND | 15.8 | 8.8 | 23.9 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 228 passing yards, 17 rushing yards |
| QB18 | Drake Maye | NE | BUF | 15.7 | 7.9 | 24.6 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 227 passing yards, 21 rushing yards |
| QB19 | Jordan Love | GB | TB | 14.8 | 7.6 | 23.8 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 236 passing yards, 7 rushing yards |
| QB20 | Matthew Stafford | LAR | PHI | 14.8 | 6.5 | 24.2 | 14.8 | 14.8 | 235 passing yards, 1 rushing yards |
| QB21 | Justin Herbert | LAC | SEA | 14.4 | 7.1 | 22.4 | 14.4 | 14.4 | 238 passing yards, 17 rushing yards |
| QB22 | Geno Smith | NYJ | CHI | 14.1 | 6.9 | 22.6 | 14.1 | 14.1 | 237 passing yards, 8 rushing yards |
| QB23 | Sam Darnold | SEA | LAC | 13.7 | 6.1 | 23.3 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 240 passing yards, 1 rushing yards |
| QB24 | Malik Willis | MIA | MIN | 13.7 | 7.3 | 21.2 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 205 passing yards, 30 rushing yards |
| QB25 | Aaron Rodgers | PIT | CLE | 12.8 | 6.0 | 21.3 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 216 passing yards, 1 rushing yards |
| QB26 | Tyson Bagent | CHI | NYJ | 12.7 | 5.4 | 22.1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 205 passing yards, 2 rushing yards |
| QB27 | Kyler Murray | MIN | MIA | 12.3 | 5.0 | 22.1 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 181 passing yards, 13 rushing yards |
| QB28 | Kirk Cousins | LV | KC | 12.1 | 5.3 | 21.4 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 213 passing yards, 1 rushing yards |
| QB29 | Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | NO | 12.0 | 5.3 | 21.4 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 202 passing yards, 1 rushing yards |
| QB30 | Cam Ward | TEN | BAL | 11.4 | 5.3 | 19.0 | 11.4 | 11.4 | 191 passing yards, 7 rushing yards |
| QB31 | Jameis Winston | NYG | ARI | 11.3 | 4.7 | 19.8 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 172 passing yards, 7 rushing yards |
| QB32 | Jalon Daniels | TB | GB | 10.7 | 4.6 | 18.5 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 195 passing yards, 8 rushing yards |
Backups and limited-role players are left off this list; they are on their player and team pages. Model opinion, not advice. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Interactive rankings (all formats) · Start/Sit assistant